CAI further reduces 2018-19 cotton crop estimate.

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The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced India’s cotton crop estimate for the 2018-19 season further by 7 lakh bales from its previous month’s estimate. As per CAI’s March estimate, India’s cotton output for 2018-19 is expected to be 321 lakh bales of 170 kg each. In India, cotton marketing season begins on October 1 of each year. State-wise, the CAI has reduced the crop estimate for Gujarat by 1 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 80,000 bales, Telangana by 4 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh by 1 lakh bales and Karnataka by 75,000 bales whereas there is marginal increase of 50,000 bales in Tamil Nadu and 5,000 bales in Orissa. “The main reason for reduction in cotton crop during this year is the scarcity of water in some states and the fact that farmers uprooted their cotton plants in about 70-80 per cent area without waiting for 3rd and 4th pickings,” CAI said in its March estimate.

Total cotton supply projected by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to March 2019 is 290.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each which consists of the arrival of 255.83 lakh bales up to March 31, 2019, imports of 6.17 lakh bales up to March 31, 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season at 28 lakh bales. Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to March 2019 at 158 lakh bales while the export shipment of cotton up to March 31, 2019 has been estimated at 39 lakh bales.  Stock at the end of March 2019 is estimated at 93 lakh bales including 45.85 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 47.15 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).

The CAI has also projected yearly Balance Sheet for the cotton season 2018-19 wherein total cotton supply till end of the cotton season, i.e. up to September 2019, has been estimated at 376 lakh bakes of 170 kg each consisting of the opening stock of 28 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season, cotton crop for the season estimated at 321 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 27 lakh bales, which are higher by 12 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales. The CAI has estimated domestic consumption of 316 lakh bales, i.e. at the same level as estimated during the last month. while the estimated exports for the season 2018-19 is at 47 lakh bales, which are lower by 22 lakh bales compared to the export of 69 lakh bales estimated during last year.  The carry-over stock at the end of the season is estimated at 13 lakh bales.


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